Henry Gilbey
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Henry Gilbey blog

Are weather forecasts becoming less accurate ?

When I am at home I watch the local and national weather forecasts most evenings, and from time to time I check on various online weather forecasting sites such as XC Weather etc. Call it habit, call it whatever you will, but saltwater anglers especially want to know what the weather and the tides are doing, even if we are not planning to actually go fishing. But I am convinced that the more technology and resources the powers that be throw at the weather forecasts in this country, the less accurate they are becoming.............

Without wanting to go off on a good old Friday rant, I grant it that we do have a huge range and variety of weather here in the UK and Ireland. A big part of the reason that we have to love the UK is the fact that we do get proper seasons, and even if they are tending to roll more and more into each other these days - it's so mild at the moment that I am thinking of getting the shorts out again !! But I still come back to all this money, technology and brain power that goes into our weather forecasts, and I am utterly convinced that they are becoming more and more inaccurate. Call it the shadowy mists of time, and perhaps it's me getting older, but I am sure I remember the local forecasts being a whole lot more on the ball when I first got to Plymouth/the south west - nearly eighteen years ago now. Yikes !!

Or is it that our weather patterns are subtly changing over time ? I am not about to get into a discussion here about global warming and all that stuff, but does anybody else think for example that we seem to get a whole lot more north west winds than we used to (I am talking about the south west) ? Merely an observation, but I remember noticing this when I used to do a serious amount of cod fishing from the shore. I used to look mainly for south westerly winds for my codding, and I am sure we used to get a load more south and south westerly gales in the "good old days" than we do now. I have never liked north west winds for anything, but I am sure I began to see more and more of them coming in. Again, is this me talking rubbish, or is there something to it ?

So are out weather forecasts becoming less and less accurate over time ? Or is it our weather patterns changing and becoming harder and harder to forecast ? Or is it just me going off on one ? We are a nation that is utterly obsessed with the weather, and us anglers take heed of it more than most - we have to, just like commercial fishermen and farmers for example. It always makes me smile how often the subject of the weather comes up in conversation - I am just the same as everybody else. "Morning, lovely day isn't it ? Isn't the weather blah, blah, blah..........." And I have convinced myself over a long period of time now that our weather forecasts are not as accurate as they used to be. But I do also accept that this might just be me !!

Henry Gilbey20 Comments